Program Overview
RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND DECISION-MAKING MASTERCLASS
Program Overview
RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND DECISION-MAKING MASTERCLASS
An executive development program for decision-makers and analysts.
The Risk Competency Tetrad
We face high-stakes risk decisions each and every day:
How to invest and what projects to pursue
Whether to visit unknown locations, and under what conditions
What personal precautions to adopt or warnings to heed
Life experience and professional tenure are poor but common surrogates for risk judgment and decision-making (JDM) competency. This program focuses on the critical research and real-world applications of the disciplines contributing to risk expertise: measurement, communication, and cognitive-behavioral science.
Unleash the power of higher risk awareness, judgment, and decision-making
Reduce ambiguity, anxiety, and fears - for you and your stakeholders
See through biases and unhelpful cognitive heuristics
Learn how to recognize valuable risk intelligence and dismiss the noise
“Risk is among the most consequential yet obscure domains of judgement. From top executives to security professionals, risk innumeracy is the best kept secret that only few dare to acknowledge and address.”
Personal Risk JDM
Personal Risk & Safety Awareness and Decision Quality
Personal Risk JDM
Personal Risk & Safety Awareness and Decision Quality
How to Develop a High Safe-esteem
Survive and Thrive in the Post-Industrial Threat Landscape
Developed and Conducted in Partnership with Safe-esteem
PREDICTIVE PROCESSING
Risk and high-value predictions
Precision-Weighing: Our Built-In Value of Information (VOI)
Updating and correction: signal strength
Augmented Sensory and Cognitive Processing: The Role of Technology
anecdotal vs. clinical vs. actuarial insights
The Quality of our Perceptions
Micromorts in Everyday Life: Maybe Not?
The Gift of Fear or a Curse? If and When to Trust Our Guts
Criminal Victimization Theories
Lifestyle and Routines
Space (Place) and Time Dimensions
Situational Awareness: Beyond Cooper’s Color Code
The Limits of Awareness
The Invisible Gorilla
Informed (Situational) Awareness: What's Going On Here?
Attention Fatigue and Depletion
Types of Focus
the value and limits of experience
Practice, History, and Anecdotes
Generalizing from the Particular
Clinical Judgment: Don’t be a Turkey
Blending Probabilistic, Bayesian, Clinical, and Intuitive Thinking
Simple Rules: Checklists and other Decision Support Tools
Scenario Planning: The Value is in the Story
“No one would believe that laying bricks long enough equates to a structural engineering degree, or that years of sailing result in expertise in oceanography - but most of us assume that security and police work, intelligence analysis, or military experience translate in risk competency.”
The Meaning of Risk
Genetics, Language, and Cultural Framing
The Meaning of Risk
Genetics, Language, and Cultural Framing
the evolutionary context
System One, and the Mighty Amygdala
Fit to Survive - or Maybe Not?
The information + Social Media + Smartphone Age and the Global Anxiety Crisis.
Mythology & Religion
Language, Abstraction, and the Future Self
How Myth and Storytelling Still Shape our Risk Discourse
probability & Statistics
Gambling, Death, and Taxes
The Emergence of Modern Probabilistic Approaches
Understand how culture, context, and professions shape the meaning of risk
Risk-sensitive Enterprise Functions and Departments
JDM Theory
Awareness, Judgment,
and Decision-Making
JDM Theory
Awareness, Judgment,
and Decision-Making
Learn which/how cognitive biases and heuristics shape risk perception and judgment
Prospect Theory and the End of Homus Economicus
Kahneman & Tversky: Low vs High Validity Domains
Taleb’s Extremistan vs Mediocristan (on Tail Risks)
10,000 Hours, Really?
Cultural Cognition: Dan Kahn
Values, Identity, and Tribe
The Decision Quality School: Key Takeaways
Courtesy of Safe-esteem
Key Cognitive-Behavioral Insights
Ambiguity: Purpose, Benefits, and Side Effects
The Feeling and Construct of Risk
Risk Rating & Ranking
Personalized Perception & Framing
Heuristics: the Good and the Bad
Judgement Bias and Noise
“The strength of our convictions, including those about risk, has no correlation with their validity.”
Measurement and Communication
Quantification Methods and Communication Theory
Measurement and Communication
Quantification Methods and Communication Theory
The Value of (Risk) Information and intelligence
Uncertainty Reduction
The Epistemic Challenge
Ambiguity
Disambiguation & Disaggregation
The Illusion of Communication
Scales & Ratings
The Deadly Risk Matrix
Pseudo-Quantitative Parametric Ratings
Geopolitical, Pandemic, Travel, and Other Useless (or deadly) Risk Indices
The Probability vs Frequentist Statistics vs Bayesian Statistics
Monte Carlo Simulations, Confidence Intervals, and Expert Elicitation
Ensemble vs Cumulative/Time-series Risks
Additional Sources of Error
Ignorance, Innumeracy, and Mental Fog
The Radical Uncertainty and Antifragility Arguments
The Limits of Statistical and Probabilistic Thinking
Data Availability and Quality
The Flaw of Averages
Context-based Granularity
Generalizing from the Particular vs Particularizing from the General
Effectively communicate risks, threats, and hazards to influence knowledge and action
When and Why Critical Information and Data Fall Flat
Open vs Implied Objectives of Risk Information
Behavior Design + UI/UX
The Case for Ethical Exploitation of Bias
Natural Frequencies, Please
Anecdotes, Narratives, Context, Personalization
Disambiguate (again)
Poor Stats & Charts
“Ambiguity rules the risk discourse across the personal, business, and public sectors. A risk competency education curriculum for executives was urgently needed.”
Instructor Profile
Your Host
Instructor Profile
Your Host
Filippo Marino
Filippo Marino: With 30 years of experience across the public and private sectors, Filippo enjoys exploring the operational, cultural, and psychological dimensions impacting the perception and management of risk - advising global leaders, executives, and organizations on how to develop effective risk judgment, decision-making, and resiliency strategies.
Throughout his career, Filippo developed, led, or optimized security, intelligence, and risk mitigation operations as both an adviser and functional leader. His professional journey started as an officer of the Italian Army and spanned across organizational and cultural boundaries, serving as a successful consultant to Fortune 500 companies and High Net-Worth individuals.
Prior to founding Tegumen and Safe-esteem, Filippo developed and directed McDonald’s Executive Protection and Global Risk Intelligence programs.
Filippo authored several guidelines, operational frameworks, and patented business models adopted across the corporate intelligence and protective security industries. He pioneered 3rd-generation Executive Protection (EP) practices with the introduction of the PROTECT model - a decision support system for corporate and UHNW protective details.
He also first popularized the concept of safe-esteem - which describes our personal risk and safety awareness and decision quality - and founded the tech startup under the same name to develop the world’s first personal safety barometer. This experience has afforded him a unique perspective and expertise at the intersection of the risk measurement, communication, and decision-making disciplines.
Filippo is a frequent guest speaker at industry events and the host of private thought-leadership events.