The Value of (Risk) Information and intelligence

  • Uncertainty Reduction

    • The Epistemic Challenge

  • Ambiguity

    • Disambiguation & Disaggregation

  • The Illusion of Communication

  • Scales & Ratings

    • The Deadly Risk Matrix

  • Pseudo-Quantitative Parametric Ratings

    • Geopolitical, Pandemic, Travel, and Other Useless (or deadly) Risk Indices

  • The Probability vs Frequentist Statistics vs Bayesian Statistics

    • Monte Carlo Simulations, Confidence Intervals, and Expert Elicitation

  • Ensemble vs Cumulative/Time-series Risks

  • Additional Sources of Error

    • Ignorance, Innumeracy, and Mental Fog

  • The Radical Uncertainty and Antifragility Arguments

The Limits of Statistical and Probabilistic Thinking

  • Data Availability and Quality

  • The Flaw of Averages

  • Context-based Granularity

  • Generalizing from the Particular vs Particularizing from the General

Effectively communicate risks, threats, and hazards to influence knowledge and action

  • When and Why Critical Information and Data Fall Flat

  • Open vs Implied Objectives of Risk Information

  • Behavior Design + UI/UX

  • The Case for Ethical Exploitation of Bias

  • Natural Frequencies, Please

  • Anecdotes, Narratives, Context, Personalization

  • Disambiguate (again)

  • Poor Stats & Charts

“Ambiguity rules the risk discourse across the personal, business, and public sectors. A risk competency education curriculum for executives was urgently needed.”